China buys less, prices hold anyway.

1. Trump announced Thursday that Hamas has agreed to disarm and Israel will withdraw from Gaza. The deal, unveiled as part of the fall's 20-point plan, requires a complete cessation of military operations and full humanitarian-protocol implementation before any second phase begins, according to a roadmap Palestinian sources shared with Anadolu. Israeli officials insist the complete removal of weapons from the Strip is a precondition, not a milestone to negotiate toward, and outside analysts say Hamas has so far declined to specify a disarmament timeline.

"Israel demands the complete disarmament of Hamas, including the removal of weapons from Gaza and the complete demilitarization of the Strip as a precondition for any process," one official told Al-Monitor. Experts quoted by the ABC say the plan is "difficult to believe" given Hamas has dissolved its Gaza government but not its arsenal. (Sources: aa.com.tr, al-monitor.com, abc.net.au) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

2. America's economy grew just 1.5% in the second quarter, missing forecasts and decelerating from 2.1% in the first. Rising imports weighed on growth even as consumer and business spending held up; government outlays fell, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Core PCE inflation eased to 3.3% year-over-year from 3.4% in May, still well above the Fed's 2% target.

The data landed a day after Kevin Warsh's Fed held rates for a fifth straight meeting while three regional presidents dissented for a hike — the first time in a decade so many officials broke the same direction on a single vote. The 30-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.24%, a 19-year high, as traders now price a 57% chance of a September hike, up from 30% before the meeting. (Sources: theguardian.com, washingtonpost.com) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

3. China's collapsed oil imports are quietly propping up global energy markets. Chinese crude purchases have run more than 40% below year-ago levels since February's US-Israel strikes on Iran began, yet Beijing's domestic economy has absorbed the shock without visible strain, Axios reports, citing customs data and Goldman Sachs analysis. Officials tapped coal, oil and gas reserves, leaned on the country's electric-vehicle fleet, and kept traffic congestion stable despite far lower gasoline use.

"I guess the surprise has been just how low Chinese demand can go," said Michal Meidan of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. "But it's been low without impairing the well-functioning of the economy." The restraint has prevented the price spike many expected from the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure. (Source: axios.com) · analysis · Relevant · Not relevant

4. A Russian ballistic missile destroyed a Kyiv drone factory owned by a Delaware-registered US company. The Friday strike on Terminal Autonomy appears to be the first time Moscow has directly targeted American-owned manufacturing in the war, the Guardian reports. The plant made AQ-400 Scythe and AQ-100 Bayonet deep-strike drones with AI guidance designed to resist Russian jamming; nobody was killed.

"The Russians don't care who owns the manufacturing facility. It's still a target. They don't care if it's American or someone else's," said Anthony Vinci, a former senior US intelligence officer. He added that if Patriot missiles were manufactured in Ukraine under Trump's July licensing pledge, Russia would likely target that facility too. (Source: theguardian.com) · spectacle · Relevant · Not relevant

5. Oil settled lower Thursday as Saudi Arabia moved to build a 14-nation maritime coalition around the Red Sea. Brent fell 1.88% to $89.03 a barrel and WTI dropped to $83.59, even after a volatile session touched $93.31 following fresh US-Iran strikes, Reuters reports. Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti joined Riyadh's defense-cooperation statement, a response to a Houthi naval blockade declared against Saudi exports last week.

Iran and Oman continued separate talks on managing the Strait of Hormuz, though Tehran has already rejected Oman's proposal for joint regional oversight. "Until safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a gamble, the risk premium in oil is not going anywhere," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. (Source: reuters.com) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

6. China's Politburo signalled only cautious economic support despite a visible consumer slump. The ruling body called Wednesday for "more proactive" tax and spending policy but stopped short of endorsing broad stimulus, the New York Times reports. Retail sales rose just 1.0% in June even as exports jumped 27% in dollar terms, a split Fortune describes as a two-speed economy where goods consumption slumps while exports and services boom.

The restraint contrasts with the scale of the domestic weakness economists describe, and leaves Beijing's response to the export-led slowdown largely unchanged from prior quarters. (Sources: nytimes.com, fortune.com) · analysis · Relevant · Not relevant

7. A Shanghai firm has been formally named as the maker of China's first domestic immersion DUV lithography tool. Reuters identified Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group as the state-owned developer, with a 7nm-capable scanner targeted for completion by 2038, Tom's Hardware reports. The naming converts last week's trade-press consensus into an identified corporate target and timeline, even as CXMT's 472% Shanghai debut and the claim together have driven a rolling selloff across Samsung, SK Hynix and SoftBank.

South Korean markets are absorbing what The Diplomat calls an "extreme correction" after months of AI-driven gains, with chipmakers now seen as dangerously overexposed to a single sector. (Sources: tomshardware.com, thediplomat.com) · juncture · Relevant · Not relevant

8. The US Senate voted 86-12 to advance a Russia sanctions bill with tariff provisions. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, named for its late co-author, pairs sanctions with a secondary-tariff mechanism that Al Jazeera says could impose duties up to 100% on countries still buying Russian energy. Washington Post columnist Max Boot, a self-described "staunch supporter of Ukraine," wrote he does not "know whether to cheer or jeer as the bill nears passage," arguing its tariff provisions could damage other countries more than Russia itself.

"There are a lot of good provisions in the legislation but also two bad ones," Boot wrote. "It's far from clear whether the good outweighs the bad, or vice versa." (Sources: washingtonpost.com, aljazeera.com) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

9. Mortgage rates hit their highest level in a year, driven by war-linked inflation fears. NPR reports rates climbed as bond markets digested this week's Fed hold and hawkish dissent, a sharp jump from 6.72% a year ago. Higher Treasury yields are now feeding directly into household borrowing costs, compounding the drag from elevated gas prices.

The combination arrives just as second-quarter GDP data showed consumer spending still resilient but slowing, leaving households squeezed from both financing and fuel costs at once. (Source: npr.org) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

10. George and Amal Clooney evacuated their French property as wildfires closed in this week. "We do not know whether our beautiful home will survive," the couple said, according to the Guardian, as blazes across southwestern France and Spain continue displacing tens of thousands on both sides of the border. The evacuation puts a recognisable face on a crisis that has already forced four thousand additional evacuations in France alone this week. (Source: theguardian.com) · spectacle · Relevant · Not relevant

11. Chinese automakers now hold 15% of the UK car market, forcing established brands into deep discounting. The share gain has come fast enough that Britain's auto industry chief is warning publicly about pressure on domestic manufacturers, Automotive News reports. A separate FT analysis finds Britain less exposed to the broader "second China shock" than some G7 peers, but not immune, noting the UK sourced 4,482 distinct categories of goods from China in the most recent fiscal year.

The UK case illustrates a wider pattern: European governments are discovering that competing with Chinese manufacturers on price, rather than on regulation, is the harder fight. (Sources: autonews.com, ft.com) · analysis · Relevant · Not relevant

12. Washington imposed new blanket tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners Friday, including the EU and China. The move follows accusations that the countries failed to curb transshipment of goods meant to dodge existing duties, OFI Magazine reports. Beijing's commerce ministry separately demanded Washington scrap a related set of forced-labour tariffs it calls unjustified protectionism.

The EU, for its part, is discovering the limits of its own recent trade deal with Washington: the Globe and Mail notes there is "no such thing as a 'stable and predictable' trading relationship" with the current US administration. (Sources: ofimagazine.com, theglobeandmail.com) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

13. US Latinos generated $4.4 trillion in GDP last year, a figure that would rank as the world's fourth-largest economy on its own. The number, drawn from Latino Donor Collaborative research reported this week, underscores a demographic bloc whose economic weight continues to outpace its political visibility in Washington's current debates over tariffs and immigration enforcement. (Source: newsweek.com) · spectacle · Relevant · Not relevant

14. Media & IP: Reuters editor-in-chief Alessandra Galloni detailed the wire's strategy of licensing AI training data instead of litigating. No new licensing deal or lawsuit has landed since to test whether the approach holds against a determined AI developer's refusal to pay. The strategy stays a stated position, not yet a tested one. (Source: reuters.com) · analysis · Relevant · Not relevant

15. Markets & Startups: Fed funds futures show traders pricing a 57% chance of a September rate hike, up from roughly 30% before Wednesday's decision. The repricing follows the first three-way hawkish dissent in a decade, with Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas all voting to raise rates while Chair Warsh held the line at 3.5%-3.75%. The 30-year Treasury yield's jump to a 19-year high of 5.24% shows bond markets, not just Fed voters, now betting inflation wins the argument. (Source: theguardian.com) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

16. Spain: Spain's wildfire crisis widened again as France ordered 4,000 more evacuations on its side of the border this week. The Clooneys' own evacuation from a French property near the fire zone has drawn fresh international attention to a crisis that has already displaced over a third of a million people across both countries combined. Firefighting capacity on both sides remains stretched by simultaneous cross-border blazes. (Source: theguardian.com) · catalyst · Relevant · Not relevant

17. Canada: Canada is watching the US-EU trade deal for lessons ahead of its own August byelections. A Globe and Mail commentary argues the EU's experience negotiating with Washington shows there is no durable settlement available under the current administration, a warning Ottawa should heed as it calculates its own tariff strategy heading into three closely watched byelections next month. (Source: theglobeandmail.com) · analysis · Relevant · Not relevant

18. Puerto Rico: Puerto Rico's news cycle stayed quiet again Friday, with no dated developments in today's corpus beyond stories already covered in prior editions. The island's absence from this week's tariff, energy and fiscal headlines continues; nothing here rises to the bar for a fresh item. · analysis · Relevant · Not relevant

19. Surprise: A US materials scientist is publicly defending decades of research ties with Chinese labs amid rising tech-war scrutiny. Elsa Reichmanis told the South China Morning Post that science should remain distinct from geopolitical rivalry, arguing collaboration with Chinese teams over her career produced findings neither side could have reached alone. "Science is a universal language," she said, a stance increasingly at odds with Washington's tightening posture on research exchange with China. (Source: scmp.com) · analysis · Interesting · Not interesting